In early phases of the game (first 16 hours), Neutral tiles are being taken and resources are being produced. As the game progresses, each team begins to challenge their clockwise and counterclockwise neighbors for production and VP nodes. If any one team does not attack its strongest neighbor, the game starts to shift slightly. If this misalignment causes one team to gain a substantial lead, they are attacked. If however, one of the neighbors does not attack the strongest team, the power balance snowballs within 12 hours. At this point, the stongest team has more power than all teams combined. The winner has been determined by Neighborhood dynamics.

Some charts, all gauged to 6 hour intervals, 18, 24 and 30 hours into the game:
Clockwise vs Counterclockwise attacks for those who like that sort of thing.
Total Power against total created power gamewide. Note the Blowout candle on Yellow at the 30 hour mark.
Attacks vs Strongest Neighbor using soldiers, which correlates to the Power Calcuation changes.

All data taken from https://factions-companion.vercel.app/stats?gameId=40 and https://mclama.com/factions/timelapse/40

Some suggestions for Maps with tight centers and wide neighbor channels:

Early Game Only Ideas:
Diminishing rewards for each attack on weakest neighbor
Bonuses for attacking strongest neighbor
VP drag: Reduced VP gains for highest Soldier + Worker production team, scaling

Most of these factors should phase out over 36 hours.
They could be events, or mechanics in the game.
Applies to monthly games only. May not have the same dynamics in maps with wide centers.

Further Analysis:
After looking at preliminary data for contested territory, and tiles before bridges, it seems clear that two strongest factions attacking two weakest factions, but not each other, is the cause for the Lead spike.

Correct penalty would be something to protect or boost two losing factions tiles if neighbors refuse to attack or buildup their strongest neighbor. I don’t have a solution for this. But the data breakout begins at 16 hours and is cemented by 30 hours if unchecked.